Morten Grønborg (2013)
SCENARIO 03:2013 - UK
(2013)
CIFS News
This section presents trends, enters
into debates concerning them, and
gives you an overview of the latest
news from the Copenhagen Institute
for Futures Studies.
Isabelle Visti Motet (2013)
MEMBERS’ COMMENTS
We asked some of our members about
the significance of the ‘The future
belongs to the city’ theme, and the
impact they think it might have on
their businesses.
(2013)
WE DO NOT NEED TO DRIVE WHERE WE ARE GOING!
According to Chris Urmson, the leader
of Google’s self-driving car project, we
will soon be able to create cars that
are reacting faster and steering more
accurately than humans. Then, cars
can be packed more tightly, closer
together, making it...
Martin Kruse, Henrik Persson, Ulrik Blinkenberg, Klaus Æ. Mogensen and João Faria Vaz Passos (2013)
Members' Publication #2 2013
Charlotte Xenia Brøns-Poulsen (2013)
Members' comments
We asked some of our members
about the signification of the theme,
Freedom from Ownership and the
impacts it might have on their
businesses.
Klaus Æ. Mogensen and Niels Bøttger-Rasmussen (2013)
THE LIBERATION OF THE 21ST CENTURY: FREEDOM FROM OWNERSHIP
We want to rent, share and borrow
rather than own. This trend is clear
on the internet where a wealth of
services offer us access to e.g. digital
music, movies, books, and magazines.
The trend, however, doesn’t
end there and will in the future ...
Klaus Æ. Mogensen and Niels Bøttger-Rasmussen (2013)
Freedom from Ownership - Intro
Trend: We want access – but don’t want to own!
The trend is clear in the digital world:
we want to rent, borrow and share,
but not own. Are you ready for a
future when fewer will want to buy and own products? This may soon become reality, even in...
(2012)
Members' Report #3/2012
A Perfect Storm on the Horizon?
(2012)
Presentations from Brussels Future Club June 2012
Presentations from Brussels Future Club held by Christine Højlund Andersen and Klaus Æ. Mogensen.
(2012)
Members' Report #2/2012:
Generation Y
Anders Bjerre (2012)
Triple dip?
The current double dip in our economy will pr obably not be all w e see. Several factors point to new challenges
rising on the financial horizon. The question is whether we should be prepared for a triple dip?
Ulrich Beck (2012)
It’s not a product of German angst. It’s the economy, stupid!
Germany wants to abandon nuclear power more quickly than any other industrial nation in the world.
According to sociologist Ulrich Beck, this is not an exaggerated panic reaction, but rather a question of economics.
In the long term, nuclear power ...
Niels Bøttger-Rasmussen (2012)
Scenarios and drivers for future business
After the fatal market-driven financial collapse in 2008, uncertainty reigns in the global business community. Readiness
to change is a key phrase, and it is necessary to formulate several scenarios for developments in industry and business
towards...
Martin Kruse (2012)
Collapse of the Euro
This section deals with wildcards and risks – upheavals or events that have the potential to change markets
locally, regionally or globally, and which directly affect people, business models and socie tal structures.
Wild cards and risks are by def...
Niels Bøttger-Rasmussen (2012)
Social inequality
This section in SCENARIO deals with wildcards and risks – upheavals or events that have the potential to change markets
locally, regionally or globally, and which directly affect people, business models and socie tal structures.
Wild cards and risk...
Anders Bjerre (2011)
Economic growth
MEGATRENDs: are general development tendencies that influence all parts of society, and which have major
impact and comprehensive scope. While a lar ge part of futures studies otherwise involves working with uncertainties,
megatrends are relatively...
Anders Bjerre (2011)
Commercialisation
MEGATRENDS are general development tendencies that influence all parts of society, and which have major
impact and comprehensive scope. While a lar ge part of futures studies otherwise involves working with uncertainties,
megatrends are relatively ...
Axel Olesen (Direktion og ledelse) (2010)
Neon Sign - SCENARIO 02:2010 (ENG)
From SCENARIO 02:2010 p. 23
Julie Kronstrøm Carton, Sally Khallash, Niels Bøttger-Rasmussen and Martin Gejrot (2010)
Members' Report 3/2010: Global Talent Rally
Klaus Æ. Mogensen, Carsten Beck, Kim Møller-Elshøj, Troels M. Kranker, Sally Khallash, Mette Skovbjerg and Jeffrey Scott Saunders (2010)
Members' report 2/2010:
10 Tendencies Towards 2020
The report presents short articles on ten tendencies that will be of importance for the way we live, the decisions
we make, and how we work towards 2020 in the West and globally.
Anders Bjerre (2009)
We Seem to Have Hit Bottom, But…
In spite of current signs of improvement, there is
reason to maintain considerable scepticism regarding
an upturn in world economy for the next few years.
This article presents arguments for this position
Anders Bjerre (2009)
The World Economy Towards 2015
Will the economic crisis soon be over, followed by
rapid growth? Are we facing a long recession, followed
by slow, but long-term growth? Or will the
economic downturn turn out to be the Western
world's counterpart to Japan's economic stagnation
...
Jesper Berg & Morten L. Bech (2009)
Fall of the Finances: What the future may hold
“As economists, we are far better at explaining
the past than predicting the future. However, history
does offer some scenarios for possible developments,
which deserve discussion,” the authors
write. Read about four historical scenarios - which
...
Jeffrey Scott Saunders (2009)
Was Executive Compensation a Cause of the Crisis? Will it remain a threat?
Executive compensation packages with excessive
bonuses for CEOs and other highly paid personnel
- particularly in the financial sector - are widely
considered to be a contributing factor to the crisis.
The problem may be returning. Read arguments...
Klaus Æ. Mogensen (2009)
ANARCONOMY - the Anarchist Economy is Coming
We are seeing a powerful growth of free
content and services on the internet. This
development is created by the users themselves
and takes place in voluntary networks
based on rather anarchic principles. This
is anarconomy. The trend challenges...
Niels Bøttger-Rasmussen (2009)
Scenarios for Housing Market Developments
Ice age or optimism? No one can say for sure how
the housing market will develop in the coming
years. However, it is possible to provide some wellconsidered
scenarios, each of which could come
true. This is what you get in this article. As always...
Johan Peter Paludan (2009)
The Cassandra Complex
Economics is often called the dismal science. At present,
it may be even more grey and sad than usual, if possible.
Morten Grønborg (2009)
They called him Professor Doom
At first they were startled by his dramatic statements.
Then they made fun of him - some scornfully. But
today, nobody laughs at Jakob Brøchner Madsen and
his sombre analysis of world economy and housing
prices. It seems the professor was right.
Morten Grønborg (2009)
Editorial: The perfect storm
What's so civil about war anyway? asks Axl Rose at the
end of the 1990 Guns'n'Roses track Civil War, and in
the same vein one may ask what's so perfect about the
perfect storm that has hit our economies in the Western
world these years. Why is it...
(2009)
FO 5/2009 EN
Morten Grønborg (2009)
The financial crisis and the shortcomings of journalism
The media abounds with myopic and one-sided
journalism. This lets the readers down as they
have too little information to make qualified decisions
Sara Barazi and Julie Kronstrøm Carton (2009)
An anxious world waiting to see the bottom
In February 2009, the Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies conducted an interview with Global Futurist Rohit Talwar, CEO at Fast Future Research, on the current crisis. In this interview, Talwar elaborates on the struggles for our global economy,...
Jeffrey Scott Saunders, Sally Khallash, Anders Bjerre, Julie Kronstrøm Carton, Knut Gythfeldt, Klaus Æ. Mogensen, Niels Bøttger-Rasmussen, Martin Kruse and Jacob Suhr Thomsen (2009)
Member's Report 1/2009: Opportunities in crisis
If you are optimistic, growth will return during the second half of 2009. If you are pessimistic, 2009 is just a prelude to a direr economic crisis to come. What will the future hold and what will the social consequences be? In this report, CIFS has ...
Jeffrey Scott Saunders and Julie Kronstrøm Carton (2009) Anders Bjerre, Klaus Æ. Mogensen, Niels Bøttger-Rasmussen, Lisbeth Dons Jensen, Hanna Schüle and Martin Kruse (2008) Axel Olesen (Direktion og ledelse) and Jeffrey Scott Saunders (2008) Axel Olesen (Direktion og ledelse) and Jeffrey Scott Saunders (2008) Axel Olesen (Direktion og ledelse) and Jeffrey Scott Saunders (2008) Niels Bøttger-Rasmussen (2008) Anders Bjerre (2008) Jeffrey Scott Saunders (2008) Henrik Persson (2008) Sally Khallash, Sara Shamekhi, Anders Bjerre, Henrik Persson, Niels Bøttger-Rasmussen, Jeffrey Scott Saunders and Martin Kruse (2008) Gitte Larsen (2007) Sally Khallash Bengtsen and Peter Khallash Bengtsen (2006) Johan Peter Paludan (2006) Allan Jenkins (2006) Jacob Suhr Thomsen (2006) Morten K. Pedersen and Chris Pedersen (2006) Gert Tinggaard Svendsen (2005) Martin Kruse (2005) Johan Peter Paludan (2005) Jon Frederik Høyrup (2005) Sean Pillot de Chenecey (2005) Lise Holt Olesen (2005) Cathrine Schmidt (2005) Stefan Hansen (2005) Gitte Larsen (2005) Kåre Stamer Andreasen and Jekob Kelstrup (2005) Kåre Stamer Andreasen and Jane Pedersen (2005) Klaus Æ. Mogensen (2005) Jon Høyrup (2005) Gitte Larsen (2004) Jon Høyrup (2004) Gitte Larsen (2004) Troels Theill Eriksen (2004) Morten Paustian (2004) Morten Grønborg, Martin Kruse and Helena Nordtorp Jørgensen (2003) Britt Kastbjerg Jensen, Jonas Kjær, Mikkel Toft-Olsen, Cecilie A Merié Muus and Rikke Juul Hansen (2003) Carsten Beck and Anders Bjerre (2003) Søren Jensen and Anders Bjerre (2003) Søren Steen Olsen (2003) Søren Steen Olsen (2003) (2002) (2002) Søren Steen Olsen, Anders Bjerre, Niels Bøttger-Rasmussen, Lotte Aabel Østergaard, Klaus Æ. Mogensen and Søren Jensen (2002) Niels Bøttger-Rasmussen (2002) Søren Steen Olsen (2002) Anne Skare Nielsen (2002) (2001) Johan Peter Paludan and Richard Worzel (2001) Søren Steen Olsen (2001) Rolf Jensen (2000) Søren Steen Olsen (2000) Niels Bøttger-Rasmussen, Søren Steen Olsen, Liselotte Lyngsø, Anders Bjerre and Martin Stauber (1999) Carsten Beck, Niels Bøttger-Rasmussen, Anders Bjerre, Axel Olesen (Direktion og ledelse), Erica Skafdrup Hornemann, Mette Peetz-Schou and Kim Grue (1998) Anders Bjerre, Axel Olesen (Direktion og ledelse) and Steen Svendsen (1997) Carsten Beck, Anders Bjerre, Liselotte Lyngsø, Axel Olesen (Direktion og ledelse), Erica Skafdrup Hornemann and Rolf jensen (1996)
Outlook for the global economy and financial crisis
In March 2009, the Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies will release our Members' Report 1/2009 on the current economic crisis, Opportunities in Crisis. The following is a summary of an interview with Anders Bjerre, Klaus Æ. Mogensen, Niels Bøttger-Rasmussen, Lisbeth Dons Jensen, Hanna Schüle and Martin Kruse (2008)
Young seniors will shape society
Aging is one of the most striking megatrends changing our society. The number of 60+ year-olds will increase greatly between now and the year 2020. The 60 to 80-year-old cohort will increase most, in percentage and absolute terms.
Members' Report #4/2008 The young seniors 2020
Aging is one of the greatest challenges facing Western societies. Aging will influence employee recruitment and retention, consumption, advertising and how society works. Denmark, in 2020, will have 57% more 70 to 74-year-olds, and 20% fewer 35 to 40...
How to act during the financial crisis
“The greatest danger in times of turbulence is not the turbulence, it is to act with yesterday's logic.” Peter Drucker
4 Scenarios for the Future of the Global Financial Crisis
We are living in uncertain times. Traditional prognoses are constantly being updated as markets change. In January 2008, oil analysts predicted that the price of oil could go as high as $200 a barrel and that prices below $100 were unlikely. In July...
Strategies for success during an economic crisis situation
CIFS has complied a list of 8 strategies that your organization can use to exploit the new opportunities that often arise during crises. History is awash with examples of organizations that have exploited crises to gain market shares and develop new ...
MR #1/2008 Strategic issue: The world economy's cohesive forces towards 2013
2008 is marked by greater uncertainty than in many years when it comes to the development of the financial markets and the economy. It is after a period in which the world economy has been stronger than at any time since the oil crisis in 1970s. The ...
MR #1/2008 Strategic issue: China
China is one of the great success stories of recent decades. Since the reforms of Deng Xiaoping in 1978, the country has undergone a remarkable economic transformation. In doing so, China has become far more integrated into the world economy and has ...
MR #1/2008 Strategic issue: The Middle East and North Africa
The Middle East and North Africa are in a phase of dramatic development that the problem-focused, often critical, flow of news about the area is not always able to capture. Few places in the world display such a blend of traditionalism and modernism ...
MR #1/2008 Strategic issue: Food
Is the wolf at the door? Already in 1798, Thomas Malthus, in his “An Essay on the Principle of Population,” anticipated that there would be insufficient food in the future. Right after publication, technological advances boosted food production beyo...
Members' Report #1/2008 Strategic issues
The world is changing. What will be the consequences for strategic planning? 2007 saw sharp declines in share prices around the world. The fear of a recession was met with a cut in US interest rates of 0.75%, the biggest cut in 15 years. At the same ...
The Corporate World issue
Dear reader. Leaving the corporate world. As we know it. Many of us dream of it. Employees have been machines and resources, and now they are people. Companies have been factories, money-machines and productivity machines. In the future, they will be...
Crafter Economy
The creative economy is growing quickly, and that raises demands for new business models in the old and traditional economy's companies and organizations. Read about what the Crafter Economy is and why it is a growing part of the economy - and how it...
Something will turn up
Do you also aim to die the day the bank will lend you no more money?
Virtual riches - real wealth
If you visit the website Anshechung.com, you will quickly realize you have reached the website of an important
real estate agent. Led by CEO Anshe Chung, the group handles commercial, residential, and vacation properties
in Geneva, Gotland, Ibiza, ...
10 business trends
In a market buffeted by global forces, you have to watch your step and navigate according to the trends that
ensure your company’s future competitiveness. But how will the market look in just two or three years?
Which trends should your company ste...
The third way of consumption
Do we understand the consumption of the present and future when we debate whether consumption is a choice
between good and evil, between happy self-realization and human and ecological catastrophe? No, says British
anthropologist Daniel Miller, who...
Trust is worth its weight in gold
The Nordic countries scored highest on a new index that indicates people's general feeling of trust in others. In Denmark two out of three people trust others, while only one out of 20 Brazilians trust each other. Greater confidence in others may not...
Megatrends: Global or regional?
Megatrends are dominating bellwethers that, in all probability, will remain valid for a minimum of the next 15 years. They influence larger portions of society and industry. Megatrends are reliable driving forces, although their effect on regions var...
Globalization - zenith of the market economy?
Globalization is nothing new. To some extent, it has existed in Europe since the end of the last ice age made room for it. When railroads opened the Russian breadbasket in the 1870s, European agriculture was sent into an upheaval that rivals today's ...
Biotech's opium war
Asian countries are exceptionally enthusiastic about biotechnology's development. Governments take initiatives. Dynamism and economic results are driven by enthusiasm. Biotechnological researchers attain rock-star status. Why is this happening in the...
‘Communities of Interest' in the global economy
In an issue of FO/Futureorientation devoted to globalization, there's one person that you must acknowledge - Theodore Levitt. It's over twenty years since he wrote his epoch-making article “The Globalization of Markets” in Harvard Busines...
Human resources and globalization
Globalization brings with it great challenges - also in human resources. The company that is ready for the future develops creative environments to hold on to the best minds. And they work actively with internal diversity to match the growing diversi...
How place matters in consumption
The place is the way to experience the world that affects us most. So consumption and marketing in the future will also be tied to “place.” But “place” cannot be justified, formed, and renewed in isolation from the rest of the...
What is Music Really Worth?
Is a CD a CD, or are CDs different? About a new way of selling music in the future.
Goodbye to Capitalism
The fight for the bottom line: Capitalism is a finished chapter in world history. Not politically, but
economically. That is according to Arie de Geus, author of The Living Company, and former head of
Shell's Group Planning unit. If today's compani...
Members' Report 1/2005: Russian Prospects - political and economic scenarios
Developments in Russia over the next 15 years could become of great importance to the World. There are many paths that Russia's political and economic development may follow towards 2020. This members' report evaluates the various possibilities and c...
Europe's Energy Future
The European energy policy is standing at a crossroads where crucial decisions must be made in the near
future. The principal decisions have been made, but conditions resembling planned economy in the energy
sectors of many countries, environmental...
The Consumers Will Seize the Means of Production
New technology now makes the decentralisation of more and more manufacturing both possible and desirable
Theme meeting 20/10-04: The Future Energy Supply
Summary of the theme meeting held October 20th 2004: The Future Energy Supply. We are facing a growing demand
for energy in the coming years. This theme meeting focused on the three main challenges: supply security,
prices and pollution.
The Family's Chief Financial Officer
Many women are fully conversant with handling the family's domestic economy, yet when it comes to self-image, responsibility, and the broader perspectives, the traditional gender roles still dominate
Theme meeting 29/9-04: Let’s Play Hardball – from Saccharine to Results
Summary of the theme meeting held September 29th 2004: Let’s lay Hardball.
Retirement, Women and Economy
A good future is something you take part in creating - right now. But
there are several ways of relating to the future, and that influences
our desires regarding retirement. Our self-image is also important for
our dispositions. Perhaps more wome...
The Economic Potential of the Ten New EU Countries
With a basis in prognoses from the new World Economic Outlook from IMF, we take a look at the expected economic growth of the EU candidate countries in the coming years.
Living the Brand
The internal part of corporate branding is misunderstood by many. All too often, it is based on empty symbols and values that aren't founded in the company and organisation. And the employees of the future will demand that the brand they work for pro...
Members' Report 3/2003: Branding Tomorrow
This members' report is addressed to those that are interested in or work with communication and management in organisations. It can be used as inspiration for marketing and organisation and product development. It contains four scenarios for the soc...
Does Corporate Branding Pay?
All religion is enthralling, and corporate branding is no
exception. We were caught, we were enthralled, and we were nearly won
over. But from a bottom-line perspective we can wonder why corporate
branding still is implemented and used in more and...
Trends 2003 - and Wildcards
What certain trends are American futurists pointing to as being the most important in 2003? What are the consequences for USA and the rest of the world? And what 'wildcards' can change the course of the future?
A Market of 1045 Billion Euros in 2002
Overall European construction markets experienced stagnation in 2002. Total construction output reached zero growth while construction sector output decreased by 0.2 percent in the Euroconstuct countries. The flattening of world economic development,...
No, Globalisation is not a straitjacket
I know it’s a cliché, but still: if you only plan on reading one book about globalisation, then let this be the one!
Happiness and Fool's Gold
Rich people in a society are happier than poor people - but rich societies aren't happier than poor societies. This is shown by surveys of people's own subjective evaluation of how happy they are. They also show that Danes are happier than other Euro...
The World Economy Has Become Austrian
Review: The Unfinished Recession. A survey of the world economy. The Economist, September 28th, 2002.
Have Market Conditions Become Global?
Review: Ongoing Changes in the Business Cycle. OECD Economic Outlook, June 2002.
Members' Report 2/2002: The PESCI Challenge: How to Create Productive and Attractive Service Jobs
This report focuses on a labour market trend that tends to be overlooked: that service work becomes industrialised. This isn't true for all service jobs, but for many, especially those in the personal service and care. We call them PESCI jobs.
Limits to Growth
Is the current economic crisis an omen of a stagnating economy? Through the last century, we have in the Western world been used to average annual growth rates of 2-3 percent. Growth is the basis for capitalist economy. But are there limits to it?
The Russians Are Coming!
Economically and politically, Russia is a success story. So thinks Anders Ålund, a Swedish professor of economics who after having been a part of a staff of international advisers for Jeltsin's reform government now is associated with the American th...
Funk and Beyond
The company of the future needs to reconsider itself - today! Success is defined by having a temporary monopoly and understanding how to make the best of it - and Funky Business is the recipe.
Will there be Norden in 2020?
Nordic cooperation reflects a cultural reality and feeling. The Nordic populations support for each other in Eurovision Song Contest is one way to illustrate that. All the same the Nordic region over the next 20 years, will be influenced by the same ...
A sneak-preview of the future
How will the future look, and what will it bring?
Johan Peter Paludan and Richard Worzel from Canada, offer their view of what the future will look like in 5, 10 and 15 years.
Eurovisions
Is the European Union today the most visionary political project, perhaps the only one left? This is hardly the general view of the eurocracy. But an intensive debate is starting to take shape about the idea of the EU, its structure and aims, in shor...
What if everybody got the same?
The world's consumption is very unequally distributed. Among other things this means that there is an enormous potential for consumption growth in the poor countries of the world. One way to illustrate this is to see how much each world citizen would...
Mass individualism - and other ideas on consumption in the future
Consumption is a means of communication and communication is becoming more important. More and more is being consumed in an apparently unending growth process. But the interesting thing is just as much how the composition of this consumption changes,...
Members' Report 3/1999: Diversity - A Competitive Advantage
Age diversity will also be a challenge in the future. Management systems, workplaces and incentive structures should take account of increasing age diversity. In the light of the smaller numbers of young people coming onto the labour market and the i...
Members' Report 3/1998: The Future of Trading on the Internet
The report only deals with the Business-to-Business (B2B) market, for the simple reason that this is where things are happening at the moment - the quiet revolution. The report starts with a series of conclusions and recommendations. The technologica...
From Business 2 Business To Business 2 Society
Is your company in the consumer or in the producer market? Who cares! The division is no longer going to be relevant: The similarities between the two markets will be greater than the differences.
Members' Report 2/1996: The Community-oriented Company
This report deals with the demands on and the possibilities for the company of the future. What will bethe general objective of operating a company in the future?
Founded in 1970 by Professor Thorkil Kristensen, former Minister of Finance and Secretary-General of the OECD.
We strengthen the basis for decision-making in public and private organizations by creating awareness of the future and highlighting its importance to the present.
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